Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
